How it picks bets — Rates every team with a World-Football Elo, turns the rating gap into a two-Poisson goal model for match odds, then bets when its probability beats the market (after a 50% shrink toward the closing line) by enough edge. Stake scales with the edge, capped at 3u.
Performance — all tournaments
P&L
-28.44u
ROI
-15.9%
Record (W-L-P)
33-39-3
Hit rate
44%
Staked
178.8u
Avg odds
2.27
Max drawdown
-43.31u
Open
5
By tournament
World Cup WC
-26.58u
32-37-3 · ROI -15.7% · 169.8u · 2 open
Eliteserien NOR
—
3 open · none settled
Allsvenskan SWE
-1.86u
1-2-0 · ROI -20.7% · 9.0u · 0 open
Equity curve — cumulative P&L
Prediction quality — 14 matches forecast
Accuracy
64%
Brier
0.506
Log-loss
0.959
vs market
0.864
Grades every match this bot forecast (whether or not it bet) — it predicts the whole slate but bets only where it sees value, so this is a bigger count than the bet log below. Lower Brier / log-loss is better; "vs market" is the closing line's log-loss on the same games (market is sharper here).
Bet log — 80 bets placed + 1 forecast not bet (newest first)
| placed | match | comp | pick | odds | stake | result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 10:47 | France v Spain | WC | Spain +0.50 AH | 1.625 | 1.8u | pending | — |
| 12 Jul 10:47 | France v Spain | WC | Spain 1X2 | 3.2 | 3.0u | pending | — |
| 11 Jul 05:01 | Argentina v Switzerland | WC | Argentina -0.50 AH | 1.67 | 2.7u | lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -2.70u |
| 11 Jul 05:01 | Argentina v Switzerland | WC | Argentina 1X2 | 1.69 | 2.9u | lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -2.90u |
| 11 Jul 05:01 | Norway v England | WC | England 1X2 | 1.95 | 0.6u | lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -0.60u |
| 11 Jul | KFUM Oslo v Bodoe Glimt | NOR | Bodoe Glimt 1X2 | 1.44 | 0.7u | pending | — |
| 11 Jul | Tromso v Valerenga | NOR | Tromso 1X2 | 1.83 | 1.4u | pending | — |
| 11 Jul | Fredrikstad v Lillestrom | NOR | Fredrikstad 1X2 | 2.7 | 3.0u | pending | — |
| 10 Jul 08:10 | Spain v Belgium | WC | Spain -0.50 AH | 1.59 | 2.2u | won | +1.30u |
| 10 Jul 08:10 | Spain v Belgium | WC | Spain 1X2 | 1.63 | 2.6u | won | +1.64u |
| 9 Jul 07:01 | France v Morocco | WC | France -0.50 AH | 1.57 | 1.0u | won | +0.57u |
| 9 Jul 07:01 | France v Morocco | WC | France 1X2 | 1.57 | 1.0u | won | +0.57u |
| 7 Jul | Switzerland v Colombia | WC | Colombia -0.50 AH | 2.25 | 2.0u | lost (0-0, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -2.00u |
| 7 Jul | Switzerland v Colombia | WC | Colombia 1X2 | 2.3 | 2.3u | lost (0-0, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -2.30u |
| 3 Jul | Kalmar v Oergryte | SWE | Oergryte 1X2 | 6.0 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 3 Jul | Degerfors v Malmoe | SWE | Malmoe 1X2 | 2.38 | 3.0u | won | +4.14u |
| 3 Jul | IK Sirius v Mjaellby | SWE | Mjaellby 1X2 | 5.0 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 3 Jul | Colombia v Ghana | WC | Colombia -1.50 AH | 2.25 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 3 Jul | Colombia v Ghana | WC | Colombia 1X2 | 1.43 | 3.0u | won | +1.29u |
| 3 Jul | Argentina v Cape Verde | WC | Argentina -2.50 AH | 2.3 | 3.0u | lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -3.00u |
| 3 Jul | Argentina v Cape Verde | WC | Argentina 1X2 | 1.14 | 0.8u | lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -0.80u |
| 3 Jul | Australia v Egypt | WC | Australia +0.50 AH | 1.59 | 1.5u | won (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | +0.89u |
| 3 Jul | Australia v Egypt | WC | Australia 1X2 | 3.55 | 3.0u | lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -3.00u |
| 2 Jul | Portugal v Croatia | WC | Portugal 59% forecast | — | — | no bet ✓ | — |
| 2 Jul | Switzerland v Algeria | WC | Switzerland -0.50 AH | 1.95 | 3.0u | won | +2.85u |
| 2 Jul | Switzerland v Algeria | WC | Switzerland 1X2 | 2.0 | 3.0u | won | +3.00u |
| 2 Jul | Spain v Austria | WC | Spain -1.50 AH | 2.0 | 2.1u | won | +2.10u |
| 30 Jun | Mexico v Ecuador | WC | Mexico 1X2 | 2.25 | 2.2u | won | +2.75u |
| 30 Jun | France v Sweden | WC | France 1X2 | 1.25 | 1.2u | won | +0.30u |
| 30 Jun | Ivory Coast v Norway | WC | Norway -0.50 AH | 2.1 | 3.0u | won | +3.30u |
| 30 Jun | Ivory Coast v Norway | WC | Norway 1X2 | 2.0 | 3.0u | won | +3.00u |
| 28 Jun | Netherlands v Morocco | WC | Netherlands -0.25 AH | 1.9 | 1.3u | lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -0.65u |
| 28 Jun | Netherlands v Morocco | WC | Netherlands 1X2 | 2.22 | 2.4u | lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -2.40u |
| 28 Jun | Germany v Paraguay | WC | Germany -1.00 AH | 1.83 | 3.0u | lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -3.00u |
| 28 Jun | Germany v Paraguay | WC | Germany 1X2 | 1.41 | 1.2u | lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -1.20u |
| 28 Jun | Brazil v Japan | WC | Japan +1.00 AH | 1.9 | 1.5u | push | — |
| 28 Jun | Brazil v Japan | WC | Japan 1X2 | 5.26 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 28 Jun | South Africa v Canada | WC | Canada -1.00 AH | 1.9 | 3.0u | push | — |
| 28 Jun | South Africa v Canada | WC | Canada 1X2 | 1.73 | 3.0u | won | +2.19u |
| 27 Jun | Croatia v Ghana | WC | Croatia -0.50 AH | 1.85 | 3.0u | won | +2.55u |
| 27 Jun | Croatia v Ghana | WC | Croatia 1X2 | 1.8 | 3.0u | won | +2.40u |
| 27 Jun | Panama v England | WC | England -2.50 AH | 2.2 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 27 Jun | Panama v England | WC | England 1X2 | 1.18 | 1.1u | won | +0.20u |
| 27 Jun | DR Congo v Uzbekistan | WC | Uzbekistan +0.50 AH | 1.95 | 1.0u | lost | -1.00u |
| 27 Jun | DR Congo v Uzbekistan | WC | Uzbekistan 1X2 | 4.6 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 27 Jun | Colombia v Portugal | WC | Colombia +0.50 AH | 1.91 | 3.0u | won | +2.73u |
| 27 Jun | Colombia v Portugal | WC | Colombia 1X2 | 4.33 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 27 Jun | Algeria v Austria | WC | Austria -0.25 AH | 1.9 | 3.0u | lost | -1.50u |
| 27 Jun | Algeria v Austria | WC | Austria 1X2 | 3.0 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 27 Jun | Jordan v Argentina | WC | Argentina -1.50 AH | 1.56 | 3.0u | won | +1.68u |
| 27 Jun | Jordan v Argentina | WC | Argentina 1X2 | 1.16 | 1.2u | won | +0.19u |
| 26 Jun | Uruguay v Spain | WC | Spain -1.00 AH | 1.8 | 3.0u | push | — |
| 26 Jun | Uruguay v Spain | WC | Spain 1X2 | 1.45 | 1.9u | won | +0.85u |
| 26 Jun | Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia | WC | Cape Verde -0.25 AH | 2.0 | 0.8u | lost | -0.40u |
| 26 Jun | Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia | WC | Cape Verde 1X2 | 2.5 | 2.0u | lost | -2.00u |
| 26 Jun | Egypt v IR Iran | WC | IR Iran +0.25 AH | 1.95 | 1.9u | won | +0.90u |
| 26 Jun | Egypt v IR Iran | WC | IR Iran 1X2 | 3.8 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 26 Jun | New Zealand v Belgium | WC | New Zealand +2.50 AH | 1.9 | 2.4u | lost | -2.40u |
| 26 Jun | New Zealand v Belgium | WC | Draw 1X2 | 7.5 | 1.0u | lost | -1.00u |
| 25 Jun | Tunisia v Netherlands | WC | Netherlands -2.50 AH | 2.05 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 25 Jun | Tunisia v Netherlands | WC | Netherlands 1X2 | 1.149 | 1.2u | won | +0.18u |
| 25 Jun | Japan v Sweden | WC | Japan -0.50 AH | 1.87 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 25 Jun | Japan v Sweden | WC | Japan 1X2 | 2.5 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 25 Jun | Curaçao v Ivory Coast | WC | Ivory Coast -2.50 AH | 2.2 | 2.2u | lost | -2.20u |
| 25 Jun | Ecuador v Germany | WC | Germany 1X2 | 1.91 | 1.3u | lost | -1.30u |
| 25 Jun | Paraguay v Australia | WC | Australia 1X2 | 4.0 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 25 Jun | Turkey v United States | WC | United States -0.50 AH | 1.91 | 2.8u | lost | -2.80u |
| 25 Jun | Turkey v United States | WC | United States 1X2 | 1.91 | 2.9u | lost | -2.90u |
| 24 Jun | South Africa v South Korea | WC | South Korea 1X2 | 1.649 | 1.9u | lost | -1.90u |
| 24 Jun | Czech Republic v Mexico | WC | Mexico 1X2 | 1.98 | 3.0u | won | +2.94u |
| 24 Jun | Morocco v Haiti | WC | Morocco 1X2 | 1.205 | 0.8u | won | +0.16u |
| 23 Jun | Colombia v DR Congo | WC | Colombia -0.50 AH | 1.53 | 3.0u | won | +1.59u |
| 23 Jun | Colombia v DR Congo | WC | Colombia 1X2 | 1.56 | 3.0u | won | +1.68u |
| 23 Jun | England v Ghana | WC | England -1.50 AH | 1.61 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 23 Jun | England v Ghana | WC | England 1X2 | 1.2 | 0.9u | lost | -0.90u |
| 22 Jun | Algeria v Jordan | WC | Jordan 1X2 | 6.5 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 22 Jun | Norway v Senegal | WC | Norway -0.25 AH | 1.94 | 3.0u | won | +2.82u |
| 22 Jun | Norway v Senegal | WC | Norway 1X2 | 2.3 | 3.0u | won | +3.90u |
| 22 Jun | France v Iraq | WC | France -2.50 AH | 1.8 | 3.0u | won | +2.40u |
| 22 Jun | Argentina v Austria | WC | Argentina -1.00 AH | 1.82 | 3.0u | won | +2.46u |
| 22 Jun | Argentina v Austria | WC | Argentina 1X2 | 1.63 | 3.0u | won | +1.89u |