Bot 8 · Mirror

How it picks bets — Doesn't pick a winner — it lays the favourite (backs the draw + the underdog) at flat, small clips on every match, harvesting the convex 'small bleed, big upset' payoff that makes the rival Mythos book money.

Performance — all tournaments

P&L

+0.09u

ROI

+1.8%

Record (W-L-P)

3-7-0

Hit rate

30%

Staked

5.0u

Avg odds

4.28

Max drawdown

-2.5u

Open

Equity curve — cumulative P&L

Prediction quality — 5 matches forecast

Accuracy

40%

Brier

0.712

Log-loss

1.141

vs market

0.971

Grades every match this bot forecast (whether or not it bet) — it predicts the whole slate but bets only where it sees value, so this is a bigger count than the bet log below. Lower Brier / log-loss is better; "vs market" is the closing line's log-loss on the same games (market is sharper here).

Bet log — 12 bets placed (newest first)

placed	match	comp	pick	odds	stake	result	P&L
12 Jul 10:47	France v Spain	WC	Spain 1X2	3.2	0.5u	pending	—
12 Jul 10:47	France v Spain	WC	Draw 1X2	3.2	0.5u	pending	—
11 Jul 05:01	Argentina v Switzerland	WC	Switzerland 1X2	5.5	0.5u	lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens)	-0.50u
11 Jul 05:01	Argentina v Switzerland	WC	Draw 1X2	3.55	0.5u	won (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens)	+1.27u
11 Jul 05:01	Norway v England	WC	Draw 1X2	3.65	0.5u	won (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens)	+1.32u
11 Jul 05:01	Norway v England	WC	Norway 1X2	3.8	0.5u	lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens)	-0.50u
10 Jul 08:11	Spain v Belgium	WC	Belgium 1X2	5.5	0.5u	lost	-0.50u
10 Jul 08:11	Spain v Belgium	WC	Draw 1X2	3.95	0.5u	lost	-0.50u
9 Jul 07:02	France v Morocco	WC	Morocco 1X2	6.5	0.5u	lost	-0.50u
9 Jul 07:02	France v Morocco	WC	Draw 1X2	3.8	0.5u	lost	-0.50u
7 Jul	Switzerland v Colombia	WC	Draw 1X2	3.0	0.5u	won (0-0, 90 min — then ET/pens)	+1.00u
7 Jul	Switzerland v Colombia	WC	Switzerland 1X2	3.5	0.5u	lost (0-0, 90 min — then ET/pens)	-0.50u