How it picks bets — Same value engine, but the odds come from a Dixon-Coles model built on each team's expected-goals (attack & defence) instead of Elo. Bets 1X2 / handicaps where its xG-based probability shows value vs the market.
Performance — all tournaments
P&L
-1.37u
ROI
-4.8%
Record (W-L-P)
5-6-0
Hit rate
45%
Staked
28.5u
Avg odds
3.25
Max drawdown
-12.84u
Open
0
Equity curve — cumulative P&L
Prediction quality — 16 matches forecast
Accuracy
69%
Brier
0.58
Log-loss
0.971
vs market
0.918
Grades every match this bot forecast (whether or not it bet) — it predicts the whole slate but bets only where it sees value, so this is a bigger count than the bet log below. Lower Brier / log-loss is better; "vs market" is the closing line's log-loss on the same games (market is sharper here).
Bet log — 11 bets placed + 10 forecasts not bet (newest first)
| placed | match | comp | pick | odds | stake | result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul | France v England | WC | England 40% forecast | — | — | no bet ✓ | — |
| 13 Jul 07:10 | France v Spain | WC | Spain +0.50 AH | 1.625 | 1.8u | won | +1.12u |
| 13 Jul 07:10 | France v Spain | WC | Spain 1X2 | 3.25 | 3.0u | won | +6.75u |
| 11 Jul 05:01 | Argentina v Switzerland | WC | Switzerland +0.50 AH | 2.2 | 3.0u | won (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | +3.60u |
| 11 Jul 05:01 | Argentina v Switzerland | WC | Switzerland 1X2 | 5.5 | 3.0u | lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -3.00u |
| 11 Jul | Norway v England | WC | England 40% forecast | — | — | no bet ✗ | — |
| 10 Jul | Spain v Belgium | WC | Spain 48% forecast | — | — | no bet ✓ | — |
| 9 Jul 07:02 | France v Morocco | WC | Morocco +0.50 AH | 2.4 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 9 Jul 07:02 | France v Morocco | WC | Morocco 1X2 | 6.5 | 3.0u | lost | -3.00u |
| 7 Jul | Switzerland v Colombia | WC | Switzerland +0.50 AH | 1.625 | 1.9u | won (0-0, 90 min — then ET/pens) | +1.19u |
| 7 Jul | Switzerland v Colombia | WC | Switzerland 1X2 | 3.5 | 3.0u | lost (0-0, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -3.00u |
| 3 Jul | Colombia v Ghana | WC | Colombia 36% forecast | — | — | no bet ✓ | — |
| 3 Jul | Australia v Egypt | WC | Egypt 39% forecast | — | — | no bet ✗ | — |
| 3 Jul | Argentina v Cape Verde | WC | Cape Verde +2.50 AH | 1.59 | 3.0u | won (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | +1.77u |
| 2 Jul | Switzerland v Algeria | WC | Switzerland 56% forecast | — | — | no bet ✓ | — |
| 2 Jul | Portugal v Croatia | WC | Portugal 44% forecast | — | — | no bet ✓ | — |
| 2 Jul | Spain v Austria | WC | Spain 49% forecast | — | — | no bet ✓ | — |
| 30 Jun | France v Sweden | WC | France 42% forecast | — | — | no bet ✓ | — |
| 30 Jun | Ivory Coast v Norway | WC | Norway 44% forecast | — | — | no bet ✓ | — |
| 30 Jun | Mexico v Ecuador | WC | Ecuador 1X2 | 3.7 | 2.0u | lost | -2.00u |
| 28 Jun | Netherlands v Morocco | WC | Morocco 1X2 | 3.85 | 1.8u | lost (1-1, 90 min — then ET/pens) | -1.80u |