Track record — 70 games graded
1X2 accuracy
63%
70 games
Brier
0.472
vs 0.667
Log-loss
0.834
vs 1.099
Favourites
44-18-8
W-D-L
| match | score | model pick | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Verde @ Argentina | 1-1 | Argentina | ✗ |
| Ghana @ England | 0-0 | England | ✗ |
| South Korea @ South Africa | 1-0 | South Korea | ✗ |
| United States @ Turkey | 3-2 | United States | ✗ |
| Paraguay @ Germany | 1-1 | Germany | ✗ |
| Sweden @ Japan | 1-1 | Japan | ✗ |
| Switzerland @ Argentina | 1-1 | Argentina | ✗ |
| Germany @ Ecuador | 2-1 | Germany | ✗ |
| Austria @ Algeria | 3-3 | Austria | ✗ |
| Cape Verde @ Uruguay | 2-2 | Uruguay | ✗ |
| England @ Norway | 1-1 | England | ✗ |
| Colombia @ Switzerland | 0-0 | Colombia | ✗ |
| Morocco @ Netherlands | 1-1 | Netherlands | ✗ |
| Belgium @ United States | 1-4 | United States | ✗ |
| Portugal @ Colombia | 0-0 | Colombia | ✗ |
| Saudi Arabia @ Cape Verde | 0-0 | Cape Verde | ✗ |
| Egypt @ Australia | 1-1 | Australia | ✗ |
| Argentina @ Spain | 0-0 | Spain | ✗ |
| Senegal @ Belgium | 2-2 | Belgium | ✗ |
| Morocco @ Canada | 0-3 | Canada | ✗ |
| Australia @ Paraguay | 0-0 | Australia | ✗ |
| IR Iran @ Egypt | 1-1 | IR Iran | ✗ |
| IR Iran @ Belgium | 0-0 | Belgium | ✗ |
| Norway @ Brazil | 1-2 | Brazil | ✗ |
| England @ France | 4-6 | France | ✗ |
| Canada @ Switzerland | 2-1 | Canada | ✗ |
| Uzbekistan @ DR Congo | 3-1 | DR Congo | ✓ |
| Algeria @ Jordan | 1-2 | Algeria | ✓ |
| Japan @ Brazil | 2-1 | Brazil | ✓ |
| England @ Mexico | 2-3 | England | ✓ |
| Spain @ France | 0-2 | Spain | ✓ |
| Ecuador @ Mexico | 2-0 | Mexico | ✓ |
| Egypt @ New Zealand | 1-3 | Egypt | ✓ |
| Argentina @ England | 1-2 | Argentina | ✓ |
| Croatia @ Portugal | 2-1 | Portugal | ✓ |
| France @ Norway | 1-4 | France | ✓ |
| Croatia @ Panama | 0-1 | Croatia | ✓ |
| Qatar @ Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3-1 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | ✓ |
| Brazil @ Scotland | 0-3 | Brazil | ✓ |
| Morocco @ France | 2-0 | France | ✓ |
| Spain @ Portugal | 0-1 | Spain | ✓ |
| Ghana @ Croatia | 2-1 | Croatia | ✓ |
| Senegal @ Norway | 3-2 | Norway | ✓ |
| Norway @ Ivory Coast | 1-2 | Norway | ✓ |
| Belgium @ New Zealand | 1-5 | Belgium | ✓ |
| Algeria @ Switzerland | 2-0 | Switzerland | ✓ |
| Iraq @ Senegal | 5-0 | Senegal | ✓ |
| Belgium @ Spain | 2-1 | Spain | ✓ |
| Mexico @ Czech Republic | 0-3 | Mexico | ✓ |
| Austria @ Spain | 3-0 | Spain | ✓ |
| Uzbekistan @ Portugal | 5-0 | Portugal | ✓ |
| Austria @ Argentina | 2-0 | Argentina | ✓ |
| Sweden @ Netherlands | 5-1 | Netherlands | ✓ |
| Ivory Coast @ Germany | 2-1 | Germany | ✓ |
| Spain @ Uruguay | 0-1 | Spain | ✓ |
| France @ Paraguay | 0-1 | France | ✓ |
| DR Congo @ Colombia | 1-0 | Colombia | ✓ |
| Haiti @ Morocco | 4-2 | Morocco | ✓ |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina @ United States | 2-0 | United States | ✓ |
| Sweden @ France | 3-0 | France | ✓ |
| Ghana @ Colombia | 1-0 | Colombia | ✓ |
| DR Congo @ England | 2-1 | England | ✓ |
| England @ Panama | 0-2 | England | ✓ |
| Canada @ South Africa | 0-1 | Canada | ✓ |
| Egypt @ Argentina | 3-2 | Argentina | ✓ |
| Japan @ Tunisia | 0-4 | Japan | ✓ |
| Argentina @ Jordan | 1-3 | Argentina | ✓ |
| Netherlands @ Tunisia | 1-3 | Netherlands | ✓ |
| Iraq @ France | 3-0 | France | ✓ |
| Saudi Arabia @ Spain | 4-0 | Spain | ✓ |
Championship odds — model vs market
| team | model | market | R16 / semi / final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 29.1% | 8.7% | 98/69/48% |
| Spain | 24.6% | 12.8% | 87/59/40% |
| France | 15.9% | 17.3% | 88/52/29% |
| England | 10.5% | 12.8% | 94/44/20% |
| Colombia | 4.8% | 1.6% | 97/23/11% |
| Brazil | 2.6% | 6.4% | 62/18/6% |
| Portugal | 2.1% | 7.5% | 64/13/6% |
| Netherlands | 1.9% | 4.4% | 62/15/5% |
| Germany | 1.7% | 5.9% | 84/15/5% |
| Mexico | 1.7% | 1.5% | 70/14/4% |
| Norway | 1.1% | 2.7% | 78/12/3% |
| United States | 0.8% | 2.3% | 72/9/3% |
| Belgium | 0.6% | 2.0% | 59/7/2% |
| Japan | 0.5% | 1.6% | 37/6/1% |
| Switzerland | 0.4% | 1.3% | 63/4/1% |
| Ecuador | 0.4% | 0.7% | 47/5/1% |
How it works
- Each team carries an Elo rating; every match is two independent Poisson goal counts from the Elo gap.
- The bracket is Monte-Carlo simulated tens of thousands of times for championship odds.
- Value bets stake on a model–market blend (pure-Elo edges are overconfident, so regressed halfway to the line).
- Every prediction is graded against the result and published, win or lose.
Sources: eloratings.net, ESPN results/odds API, football-data.co.uk (club).